Back

Vaccine: X

Elsevier BV

Preprints posted in the last 7 days, ranked by how well they match Vaccine: X's content profile, based on 19 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.01% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.

1
Modeling the Impact of Pediatric RSV Immunization in Massachusetts, 2024--2025

Jones, L.; Ergas, R.; Tibbs, A.; Russo, E. T.; Norville, J.; Bingay, B.; Brown, C. M.; Reich, N. G.; Pasco, R.

2026-06-10 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.06.05.26354236 medRxiv
Top 0.1%
3.6%
Show abstract

Background Pediatric immunizations for Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV), including monoclonal antibodies for infants and vaccines for pregnant people, have become broadly available and can prevent severe RSV outcomes in infants. However, quantifying the impact of RSV immunization in prevention of severe pediatric illness at the population-level is limited by lack of RSV case surveillance data. The Massachusetts Department of Public Health (DPH) conducted a modeling analysis using routine public health surveillance data to estimate the state-level impact of new RSV immunization products on Emergency Department (ED) visits and hospitalizations in Massachusetts for highest risk pediatric groups. Methods A scenario projection tool, called R.Scenario.Vax, was utilized to simulate RSV-associated ED hospital encounters by age group in the context of newly available immunizations. ED visit and hospitalization data from the National Syndromic Surveillance Program (NSSP) during the time period 10/08/2017--10/19/2024 were analyzed, scaled to account for changes in RSV testing practices over time and missing encounter volume in historic data, and utilized to inform model fit of a "typical" RSV season. RSV immunization data from the Massachusetts Immunization Information System (MIIS) for the 2023--2024 and 2024--2025 RSV seasons informed high and moderate pediatric RSV immunization coverage scenarios and their impact was compared to a counterfactual reference scenario of no new immunizations. Median projections were quantitatively and qualitatively compared to observed 2024--2025 season data. Percent reduction in hospital encounters and encounters averted per 10,000 population were calculated for each scenario as compared to the reference. Results Projections for the youngest at-risk age groups showed significantly lower RSV-associated ED visits and hospitalizations during the 2024--2025 season for both high and moderate immunization coverage scenarios. Median projections for infants under 6 months old in the highest coverage scenario, wherein nearly all infants were immunized, showed 72.6% lower ED visits and 73.4% lower hospitalizations when compared to the reference scenario, equating to 262 ED visits and 85 hospitalizations averted per 10,000 population. Conclusions Our results support the use of modeling methods for public health insights and suggest that RSV immunizations for infant populations result in significantly lower RSV-related ED encounters in Massachusetts.

2
Age-specific burden of medically attended respiratory virus disease in high-income countries: a scoping review and meta-analysis

Gupta, M.; Zoega, H.; Stopard, I. J.; Liu, B.; Macartney, K.; Wood, J. G.; Hogan, A. B.

2026-06-10 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.06.09.26354660 medRxiv
Top 0.3%
0.7%
Show abstract

Introduction: Respiratory infections are a leading cause of morbidity. Newly available vaccines to prevent respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) disease and encouraging clinical progress on vaccines for human metapneumovirus (hMPV) and parainfluenza (PIV) could reduce the disease burden beyond existing influenza and SARS-CoV-2 immunisation programs. However, evidence on the contribution of these viruses to respiratory disease burden across the lifespan remains limited. Methods: We reviewed studies from 01/2002-11/2025 reporting age-stratified, medically attended cases of influenza, and at least one of RSV, hMPV, or PIV, in high-income countries, excluding periods substantially overlapping with the COVID-19 pandemic. Using only studies that tested for all four viruses, we estimated the age-specific proportion of cases that were non-influenza (total across RSV, hMPV and PIV) compared to influenza using a mixed-effects logistic regression model. Results: Following exclusions and screening, 61 studies were included in the primary analysis comprising >500,000 detections of the four viruses. We found that a substantial proportion of medically attended respiratory illness in infants and young children was due to PIV, hMPV and RSV, rather than influenza, with a non-influenza virus proportion of 90.2% (95% CI 85.9-93.2%) in young infants aged 0-6 months. The converse was true for school-aged children, with a non-influenza virus proportion of 34.8% (95% CI 26.5-44.2%) in children aged 5-18 years. In adults aged 65+ years, non-influenza causes of medically attended disease were common at 60.2% (95% CI 50.0-69.5%). Restricting to studies reporting hospitalised cases (n=19) produced broadly similar age-specific trends in relative virus burden contributions. Discussion: We highlight the significant burden of medically attended illness due to PIV, hMPV and RSV across ages, particularly in infant and preschool-aged children and older adults, supporting the need for effective vaccines targeting this burden.

3
Increasing influenza vaccination rates among care home staff: Economic evaluation of the FluCare intervention within a cluster-RCT

Wagner, A. P.; Risebro, H.; Clark, A.; Stirling, S.; Sims, E.; Bion, V.; Blacklock, J.; Birt, L.; Bryant, R.; Cook, L.; Dean, T.; Wyn Griffiths, A.; Guillard, C.; Holland, R.; Jones, A. P.; Jones, L.; Katangwe-Chigamba, T.; Pitcher, J.; Scott, S.; Wright, D.; Patel, A.

2026-06-09 health economics 10.64898/2026.06.06.26355050 medRxiv
Top 0.6%
0.3%
Show abstract

Introduction Care home (CH) influenza vaccination of staff improves resident health, yet uptake remains low at just over 11% (England, 2025/2026). We report an economic evaluation (EE) of "FluCare", an intervention to increase staff influenza vaccination through: vaccination clinics at CHs; promotional materials; and CH financial incentives. Method Seventy-five CHs were randomised to FluCare or control. A cost-consequence analysis took the influenza vaccination programme funder perspective, but also extended to the National Health Service (NHS) and CH perspective. Costs included: influenza vaccination; administration fee; FluCare components; CH resident NHS utilisation. Outcomes were: staff influenza vaccination rates; staff sickness; and resident mortality. Sensitivity analyses excluded intervention CHs that did not host vaccination clinics. Results Compared to control CHs, adjusted analysis found intervention homes with a mean absolute increase in vaccination rates of 1.8% (95% CI: -6.0%, 10.8%; p=0.572) at an increased cost of {pound}451 (95% CI: {pound}239, {pound}675; p<0.001) to the vaccination programme funders: {pound}249 per additional percentage point (PAPP) per CH. Vaccination clinics were delivered late in the influenza season, with 80% taking place from February 2023. Including only intervention CHs that hosted staff flu vaccination clinics (23/35), increases the mean difference to 10.1% (95% CI: 0.9%, 21.9%; p=0.018) and costs to {pound}805 (95% CI: {pound}603, {pound}1,079; p<0.001): {pound}79 PAPP per CH. Differences between trial arms in other costs and outcomes were marginal and generally non-significant. Conclusions FluCare delivered little improvement when staff flu vaccination clinics did not occur and had little impact on other costs/outcomes. Cost-effectiveness depends on willingness-to-pay for increased staff vaccination, but cost PAPP per CH improved from {pound}249 to {pound}79 when only CHs hosting clinics were considered. Late implementation, likely reduced impact by limiting clinic delivery, as reflected in sensitivity analysis. Future evaluations should implement FluCare earlier in the season.

4
Serological thresholds of risk reduction for infant group B streptococcus disease

Cantrell, L.; Karampatsas, K.; Andrews, N.; Beach, S.; Bentley, E.; Berardi, A.; Bijlsma, M. W.; Cagil Kocana, C.; Daniel, O.; French, N.; Hall, T.; Izu, A.; Khalil, A.; Kwatra, G.; Kyohere, M.; Madhi, S. A.; Mboizi, R.; Miselli, F.; Nielsen, M.; Thorn, N.; van de Beek, D.; Walker, K.; Heath, P. T.; Le Doare, K.; Voysey, M.; PREPARE WP3 Study Group,

2026-06-06 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.05.29.26353453 medRxiv
Top 0.7%
0.3%
Show abstract

Vaccines to prevent infant group B streptococcus (GBS) disease are advancing, with licensure likely based on safety and immunologic endpoints rather than clinical efficacy data. This approach requires robust, generalisable serological thresholds of risk reduction (SToRRs). We combined data from six case-control studies in Europe and Africa to define SToRRs for early-onset (EOD) and late-onset (LOD) GBS disease. Across diverse epidemiological and healthcare settings, anti-capsular polysaccharide IgG concentrations were consistently higher in infants who remained disease free than in those who developed disease. Higher antibody concentrations were required to reduce the risk of EOD than LOD, and higher concentrations were required for serotype Ia than for serotype III. This study provides a quantitative framework to support correlates-based evaluation and potential licensure of maternal GBS vaccines.

5
Translation and Cross-cultural Validation of Leprosy Case Detection Delay Questionnaire Among Persons Affected by Leprosy in Southeast Nigeria

Eze, C. C.; Murphy-Okpala, N. N.; Ekeke, N.; Nwafor, C.; Egbule, D.; Njoku, M.; Ezeakile, O.; Meka, A.; Iyama, F. S.; Ogbuefi, E.; Ugwu, O.; Solomon, M.; Adesigbin, C.; Chukwu, J.

2026-06-09 public and global health 10.64898/2026.06.06.26355058 medRxiv
Top 0.8%
0.2%
Show abstract

Introduction Reducing delays in leprosy case detection is essential for achieving global leprosy targets. Accurate measurement of these delays and their determinants relies largely on patient-reported data, as routine health records are often inadequate. The leprosy case detection delay (CDD) questionnaire, developed under the Post Exposure Prophylaxis for Leprosy (PEP4LEP) project, has been validated in Ethiopia, Mozambique, Tanzania, and Indonesia. However, it has not been adapted or validated for Nigeria or any major Nigerian indigenous language. This study aimed to culturally adapt and validate the CDD questionnaire for Igbo-speaking populations in Nigeria. Methodology/Principal Findings The CDD questionnaire underwent a standardized cross-cultural adaptation process. Content validity was assessed using item- and scale-level content validity indices, while construct validity was evaluated through hypothesis testing. Reproducibility was assessed using test-retest and inter-rater reliability; agreement using the Bland-Altman method and the Wilcoxon Signed-Rank test; reliability using Spearmans rank correlation coefficient and the Intraclass Correlation Coefficient (ICC); and internal consistency using Cronbachs alpha. Data were collected through face-to-face interviews with persons affected by leprosy at two time points separated by at least two weeks. Participants (n=100) had a mean age of 45.1 years (SD=18.7). Mean CDD was 77.2 months at baseline and 77.9 months at retest. The instrument demonstrated excellent content validity (I-CVI/S-CVI: 0.90-1.00), good internal consistency (Cronbachs =0.77), and excellent test-retest reliability (ICC=0.996, 95% CI: 0.994-0.997). Test and retest measurements were highly correlated ({rho}=0.985, p<0.001), with no evidence of systematic change over time (p=0.864). Seventy-two percent of participants reported identical CDD values across assessments. All items from the original English version were retained without modification. Conclusion/Significance The Igbo version of the CDD questionnaire demonstrated good validity and reliability and is suitable for assessing leprosy case detection delay among Igbo-speaking populations in Nigeria

6
Epidemiology of Cervical Precancerous Lesions: Prevalence and Predictors from Pap Smear Screening in Hawassa City Hospitals, Sidama Region, Ethiopia. Institutional-Based Cross-sectional Study

Fisshatsion, A. B.; Zewude, Y. A.; Nisro, A. M.; Abebe, R. F.

2026-06-10 public and global health 10.64898/2026.06.09.26355254 medRxiv
Top 0.8%
0.2%
Show abstract

Background: Cervical cancer is the fourth most common cancer in women worldwide and remains a major public health challenge. In Ethiopia, it is the second leading cause of cancer deaths, with around 8,000 new cases and 6,000 deaths each year. Region?specific data on the prevalence and predictors of precancerous lesions remain scarce, yet such information is vital for guiding targeted reproductive health strategies. This study therefore examined the prevalence and predictors of cervical precancerous lesions among women aged 21-60 years undergoing Pap smear screening in public hospitals in Hawassa City, Sidama Region. Methods: An institution-based cross-sectional study was conducted among 241 women attending Pap smear screening at public hospitals in Hawassa City from March to August 2025. Sociodemographic and clinical data were collected via interviews and medical records. Lesions were classified based on the standardized international framework for reporting cervical cytology results from Pap smears per the Bethesda system. Multivariable logistic regression identified predictors p<0.05). Result: Of 241 women screened (mean age 35.3 years), cervical epithelial abnormalities were detected in 52 (prevalence 21.6%). Atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance was the most common abnormality (16.6%). Multivariable analysis showed HIV infection was significantly associated with precancerous lesions (AOR = 3.7, 95% CI: 1.69-8.12, p<0.05), while hormonal contraceptive use was protective (AOR = 0.27, 95% CI: 0.11-0.67, p<0.05). Conclusion: These results underscore the urgent need to strengthen cervical cancer prevention through targeted screening and early intervention. Integrating routine HIV testing with Pap smear programs would be especially valuable. Health authorities should expand accessible screening for women aged 21-60, with particular attention to those living with HIV, to help reduce the burden of precancerous lesions.

7
Five-year immunogenicity and safety follow-up of the PREVAC randomized Trial of Vaccines for Zaire Ebola Virus Disease

BEAVOGUI, A. H.; Doumbia, S.; Kieh, M.; Leigh, B.; Sow, S.; Lhomme, E.; Ben-Farhat, S.; Dubois Cauwelaert, N.; Roy, C.; Diouf, W.; Idrissa, S.; Diarra, S.; Millimouno, N. P.; Diallo, F. A.; Kamara, M.; Pratt, D.; Dicko, I.; Kennedy, S. B.; Esperou, H.; Choi, E. M.; Kpetigo, A.-M. D.; D'Ortenzio, E.; Diallo, A.; Lancrey-javal, S.; Hamze, B.; Schwimmer, C.; Wiedemann, A.; Ayouba, A.; Peeters, M.; Lane, H. C.; Higgs, E.; Watson-Jones, D.; Yazdanpanah, Y.; Greenwood, B.; RICHERT, L.; Levy, Y.; PREVAC study team,

2026-06-08 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.05.29.26354050 medRxiv
Top 1.0%
0.2%
Show abstract

Background: The World Health Organization has expanded its recommendations for prophylactic Ebola vaccination for at-risk populations. Durable vaccine-induced immunity is important for sustaining outbreak preparedness in regions with recurrent Ebola virus disease (EVD). We assessed five-year persistence of vaccine-induced immune responses in adults and children from the PREVAC trial. Methods: Two large randomised phase 2 trials (NCT02876328), in adults and children aged [&ge;]1 year, were conducted in four west African countries. Participants were randomly assigned to placebo or to one of three Ebola vaccine strategies: Ad26.ZEBOV followed by MVA-BN-Filo at 56 days; rVSV{Delta}G-ZEBOV-GP followed by placebo; or rVSV{Delta}G-ZEBOV-GP followed by a homologous booster dose at 56 days. After 12 months of follow-up, the primary results were published, participants unblinded to their vaccine assignment, and follow-up continued for 60 months. After Month 24, placebo group recipients were offered active vaccination. Anti Ebola virus glycoprotein Immunoglobulin G (IgG) concentrations were measured for 5 years. Findings: 1401 adults and 1401 children were initially randomized, and 1315 (93.9%) adults and 1322 (94.4%) children attended at least one long-term visit. Retention was high, with 95% followed beyond 1 year and 83% completion at 5-year follow-up. For the three vaccine strategies, antibody geometric mean concentrations (GMC) declined modestly between Months 12 and 24, followed by a stable plateau from Months 24 to 60. At Month 60, antibody GMC were higher in the rVSV-based groups (1099 and 1216 EU/ml for adults; 1982 and 2347 EU/ml for children) than in the Ad26.ZEBOV, MVA-BN-Filo group (252 adults and 645 EU/ml children). Antibody persistence at Month 60 was heterogeneous, varying by age, sex, country, and baseline IgG concentration. Interpretation: Licensed Ebola vaccines induced sustained antibody responses in adults and children for up to 5 years. While the protective antibody level is unknown, these data demonstrate long-lasting immune responses from currently employed vaccine strategies.

8
Meningitis vaccination campaign in the context of COVID-19 in Cameroon

Mbang, M. A.; Cheuyem, F. Z. L.; Tchamani, R.; Debnet, J.; Ebongo, Z. N.; Fouda, A. A. B.

2026-06-04 public and global health 10.64898/2026.06.02.26354702 medRxiv
Top 1%
0.1%
Show abstract

Objective: The study aimed to describe the challenges, best practices, and lessons learned during meningitis vaccination campaigns conducted in the context of COVID-19 in Cameroon in 2020. Results: During the prevention campaigns, 3,460 individuals were selected. All were tested before the campaign (100%). Eight cases were positive, representing a positivity rate of 0.23% (8/3,460). The campaign was carried out using a fixed strategy in health facilities and prisons and a fixed-temporary strategy in communities. Most health areas received sufficient quantities of COVID-19 equipment for some items and insufficient quantities for others. No screening was done during or after the campaign. The main difficulties encountered were compliance with social distancing and the continuous wearing of gowns. The challenges faced were the screening of actors and the use of personal protective equipment. Lessons learned: aspects related to COVID-19 impacted the speed of the campaign. Vaccination coverage ranged from 91% to 140% in prisons on the one hand, and from 35% to 112% in the health areas surrounding prisons on the other. The campaign in the context of COVID-19 was effective. Compliance with barrier measures was not optimal due to difficulties encountered with aspects such as social distancing, continuous wearing of gowns, screening of participants during and after the campaign, and insufficient personal protective equipment.

9
Elevating the patient perspective: Qualitative evaluation of non-U.S. born care navigation on latent tuberculosis infection screening and treatment adherence

Ramzy, L. M.; Rahman, M.; Luque, M. O.; Rodrigues, K. K.; Belknap, R.; Venci, J. A.; Francis, B.; Ruckard, B. J.; Moran-Ibarra, W.; Rasulo, R. M.; Matadi, A.; Ramirez, M. G.; Thee, P. S.; McFeron, H. D.; Monson, S. P.; For the Tuberculosis Epidemiologic Studies Consortium,

2026-06-08 public and global health 10.64898/2026.06.04.26354954 medRxiv
Top 1%
0.1%
Show abstract

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to examine the barriers and facilitators experienced by non-U.S. born persons during the diagnosis and treatment of latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) in primary care settings, including the impact of culturally and linguistically congruent care navigation. Design: 25 interviews with non-U.S. born patients, along with focus groups and surveys with 31 primary care team members and leadership, were conducted. Setting: The study was conducted within a network of Federally Qualified Health Center (FQHC) clinics. Participants: Participants were adult non-U.S. born patients with LTBI and FQHC care team members. A purposefully selected subsample of randomized participants was interviewed. Intervention: Care navigators followed participants randomized to receive care navigation after a positive test for tuberculosis (TB) infection and offered health navigation and education about the importance of TB screening and treatment. Method: Data collection was followed by thematic analysis guided by a critical ideological paradigm. Results: Culturally and linguistically congruent navigation emerged as central to potentially reducing barriers, fostering trust, and improving treatment continuity. Participants without navigation support reported confusion and disengagement from care, while those with culturally aligned navigators described clarity and comfort, with influence overall by intrinsic motivation, relational support, and culturally shaped beliefs about care. Conclusion: Care navigation that includes culturally and linguistically congruent navigators whenever possible may help increase LTBI treatment completion among non-U.S. born populations. Limitations of the study include the potential influence of cultural norms, power dynamics, and selection bias.

10
Computational and Experimental Antibody Affinity and Diagnostic Accuracy Quantification of SARS-CoV-2 SD2 Major Disulfide Loop Analog

Pollo, B. A. L. V.; Perias, G. A.; Aguimatang, R. H.; Espiritu, A. P.; Ching, D.; Idolor, M. I.; King, R. A.; Climacosa, F. M.; Caoili, S. E.

2026-06-08 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.06.05.26353587 medRxiv
Top 1%
0.1%
Show abstract

Introduction: Synthetic oligopeptides provide a rapid and cost-efficient approach to developing antibodies and diagnostics for emerging viral variants. Methods: This study computationally and experimentally characterized a synthetic peptide analog of the SARS-CoV-2 spike subdomain 2 major disulfide loop (SD2MDL), designated S621 (CPVAIHADQLTPTWRVYSTC). Binding affinity was computationally estimated using the Heuristic Affinity Prediction Tool for Immune Complexes (HAPTIC), while experimental validation was performed using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) with rabbit-derived antipeptide antibodies. Clinical diagnostic accuracy testing was done using plasma samples from RT-PCR-confirmed COVID-19 patients and pre-COVID-19 controls. Results: S621 demonstrated nanomolar binding affinity (Kdapp = 1.14 nM) and high avidity (3.67 nM), closely matching HAPTIC predictions (3.54 nM). Diagnostic evaluation yielded a sensitivity of 89.92% and specificity of 27.79%, corresponding to an overall accuracy of 71.79%. Discussion: These findings demonstrate that a single synthetic peptide derived from a conserved spike subdomain can function as a high-affinity surrogate for full-length antigens, supporting its potential application in rapid peptide-based immunodiagnostics.

11
Gendered pathways to adolescent mental health: An empirical assessment of a new conceptual framework

Alaze, A.; Hagen, D.; Schamberger, T.; Razum, O.; Miani, C.

2026-06-10 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.06.09.26355310 medRxiv
Top 2%
0.0%
Show abstract

Introduction Gender norms and roles are important determinants of physical and mental health in the key period of adolescence. Yet, the gendered pathways to mental health in adolescents are not fully understood. Using a conceptual framework for global adolescent mental health that we developed based on a Delphi process, we empirically investigated the associations between six gender-related constructs and adolescent mental health. Methods We used cross-sectional Gender and Adolescence: Global Evidence (GAGE) data from Ethiopia (2020) to explore the associations between sex, gender norms, psychological competencies, gender attitudes, gender roles, with the latter two also serving as mediators, and psychological distress (GHQ-12), using Structural Equation Modelling (SEM). Results The SEM model contained measurements from 1,584 adolescents, including 843 girls and 741 boys, with a median age of 13 years. Out of 14 pathways tested, we found statistically significant associations between psychological competencies and psychological distress; sex and gender attitudes; and between gender norms and psychological competencies, gender attitudes, and gender roles. Hence, the gender-related constructs were mostly associated with each other, rather than with psychological distress. Conclusion The gender-related constructs are strongly interrelated, thereby attenuating their individual effects on psychological distress. The interplay of gender-related constructs should be considered when developing interventions to promote mental health in adolescents.

12
A Decade of the Center for Disease Control and Prevention's FluSight Influenza Forecasting

Hines, A. G.; Mathis, S. M.; Johansson, M. A.; Biggerstaff, M.; Reed, C.; Borchering, R.

2026-06-08 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.06.05.26354941 medRxiv
Top 2%
0.0%
Show abstract

Since the U.S. 2013/14 influenza season, the CDC's FluSight Challenge has provided a platform for evaluating influenza forecasting models and fostering collaboration across institutions. The Challenge aims to improve the science and enhance the utility of infectious disease forecasts for public health decision making. We analyzed ten years of submitted forecasts (2014/15-2019/20 (influenza-like illness seasons) and 2021/22-2024/25 (hospital admissions seasons)) across a range of model types, including statistical, mechanistic, machine learning, and hybrid models. Influenza-like illness (ILI) forecasts were evaluated using the exponentiated logarithmic score (skill metric) while hospital admissions forecasts were evaluated using the log transformed relative Weighted Interval Score. Corresponding potential performance differences were assessed using Wilcoxon rank-sum tests, and associations with team participation history were evaluated using Spearman's rank correlation. Model performance varied by season, and no single model type consistently outperformed others. In ILI seasons, statistical models generally performed better than mechanistic and machine learning models, though consistent differences were not observed in more recent hospital admissions seasons. Ensemble forecasts showed better overall performance across seasons, and the CDC's FluSight ensemble ranked among the top-performing forecasts every year. We also found a positive correlation between forecast accuracy and the number of years a team participated in the Challenge, with statistically significant associations in four seasons. These findings highlight the benefits of ensemble approaches and sustained engagement in improving forecasting performance, while also underscoring the continued value of forecast evaluation before and following the COVID-19 pandemic. Insights from the FluSight Challenge can guide future infectious disease forecasting efforts and support more effective public health preparedness.

13
Estimating Infectious Disease Importation Risk during the 2026 FIFA World Cup

Herrera-Diestra, J. L.; Bi, K.; Ptak, S.; Ertem, Z.; Al-amery, A.; Harris, M.; Meyers, L. A.

2026-06-04 public and global health 10.64898/2026.06.03.26354828 medRxiv
Top 2%
0.0%
Show abstract

Background. The 2026 FIFA World Cup will bring an estimated 1--5~million international visitors to 11~US host cities between June~11 and July~19, 2026---the largest tournament in history. Large-scale international gatherings accelerate importation of infectious diseases from diverse source populations. Advance estimation of importation risk is essential for public health preparedness and surveillance prioritization. Methods. We developed a Poisson importation framework applied to five diseases (dengue fever, influenza, malaria, measles, and pertussis) across the 11~US venue cities. Three nested travel models of increasing resolution were constructed: a baseline model using routine June~2024 arrival data; a World Cup--adjusted model incorporating projected visitor growth factors; and a schedule-driven model routing WC fans to specific cities based on match assignments. WHO incidence and BTS T-100 routing fractions were combined with Monte Carlo uncertainty propagation (5,000 Uniform draws on under-reporting and travel-while-infectious parameters) to yield median importation estimates with 95\% uncertainty intervals. Results. Dengue posed the highest importation risk at most venue cities under the schedule-driven model (median $\Lambda > 10$ expected importations from Brazil alone; 95\% uncertainty interval 5.9--33.1), robust across the full literature-supported parameter range; Atlanta was the exception, where malaria probability exceeded dengue, driven by direct travel from West and Central African nations. Influenza ranked second at most cities, coinciding with the Southern Hemisphere winter peak. Pertussis showed broad geographic spread but carries the widest relative uncertainty, as the assumed detection rate sits at the upper bound of the literature range. Background tourism accounted for the dominant share of total importation risk; the World Cup fan increment contributed approximately 8.3\% of projected arrivals for WC-qualified nations. Conclusions. This Poisson importation framework, built entirely from publicly available data, provides reproducible importation risk estimates for mass gathering events. The framework extends to additional diseases, cities, and gatherings, offering a transparent baseline complementary to proprietary modeling systems.

14
Neonatal mortality risk of large-for-gestational age and macrosomic live births in low- and middle-income subnational birth cohorts: An individual participant meta-analysis (2000-2017)

Kirakoya Samadoulougou, F.; Barche, B.; Ukwishaka, J.; Subedi, S.; Erchick, D. J.; Suarez Idueta, L.; Hamer, D. H.; Semrau, K. E. A.; Hamomba, F. M.; Banda, B.; Manasyan, A.; Pry, J. M.; Maleta, K.; Ashorn, U.; Schmiegelow, C.; Hjort, L.; Minja, D. T. R.; Lusingu, J. P. A.; Freitas da Silveira, M.; Buffarini, R.; Baqui, A. H.; Khanam, R.; Ahmed, S.; Zhu, Z.; Zeng, L.; Cheng, Y.; Lachat, C.; Roberfroid, D.; Huybregts, L.; Toe, L. C.; Tielsch, J. M.; Khatry, S. K.; Mullany, L. C.; Ohuma, E. O.; Blencowe, H.; Katz, J.; Lee, A. C. C.; Black, R. E.; Hazel, E. A.

2026-06-06 public and global health 10.64898/2026.06.03.26354851 medRxiv
Top 2%
0.0%
Show abstract

Background Large-for-gestational-age (LGA) and macrosomic newborns are at increased risk of adverse perinatal outcomes, including death, yet the burden of neonatal mortality associated with these conditions in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), where ongoing nutritional and epidemiological transitions suggest their prevalence will rise, remains poorly quantified. In this study, we quantify the neonatal mortality risk associated with LGA and macrosomia from 16 subnational birth cohorts in low- and middle-income countries between 2000 and 2017. Methods and findings This is an individual-participant meta-analysis to estimate neonatal mortality rates (NMRs) and relative risks among LGA infants (>90th and >97th percentile birth weight-for-gestational-age using INTERGROWTH-21st) versus appropriate-for-gestational-age (AGA, 10th-90th percentile) infants. Macrosomic ([&ge;]4000 g and [&ge;]4500 g) neonates were compared with those weighing 2500 g-3999g. Missing birth weights were imputed using recalibration and multiple imputation methods. We used random effects meta-analysis to pool relative risks. Median prevalences of LGA >90th and >97th percentile were 5.3% (interquartile range 3.6-8.2) and 2.6% (IQR 1.3-4.5), respectively; macrosomia ([&ge;]4000 g and [&ge;]4500 g) prevalences were 1.0% (IQR 0.3-3.1) and 0.06% (IQR 0.0, 0.30), respectively. Mortality was highest among preterm plus LGA infants (61.3 per 1000). LGA infants in the >90th percentile had over twofold increased mortality compared with appropriate-for-gestational-age infants (RR: 2.46; 95% CI: 1.86-3.25), while >97th percentile infants had a higher risk (RR: 3.77; 95% CI: 2.50-5.69). Term LGA >97th percentile infants also showed elevated mortality (RR: 3.14; 95% CI: 1.58-6.22). For LGA >97th percentile, the risk was higher in the early neonatal period (RR: 2.71; 95% CI: 1.92-3.82) than late (RR: 1.69; 95% CI: 1.22-2.34). There was no overall association between macrosomia ([&ge;]4000 g) and neonatal mortality. Population attributable fractions were 7.2% for LGA >90th percentile and 0.4% for macrosomia ([&ge;]4000 g). Conclusions Neonatal mortality risks were elevated among LGA infants in low- and middle-income countries, particularly at extreme values (>97th percentile) and during the early neonatal period. Macrosomia showed weaker, less robust associations. Although LGA prevalence is currently low ([~]5%) and contributes less to neonatal mortality than small newborns, ongoing nutritional and epidemiological transitions suggest increasing prevalence. This highlights the need for strengthened surveillance, monitoring, and improved delivery planning to ensure that no population is left behind.

15
Beyond Injection Detection: A Positive-Security Prompt Firewall that Closes the Scope and PHI Gap SOTA Classifiers Miss in Healthcare

Schwoebel, J.; Semenec, I.; Rousseva, J.; Frasch, M. G.; Thorstenson, R.; Bhatt, M.

2026-06-06 health systems and quality improvement 10.64898/2026.06.04.26354950 medRxiv
Top 2%
0.0%
Show abstract

Large language models embedded in autonomous agents process trusted instructions and untrusted data in one context window, leaving them open to direct and indirect prompt injection. In healthcare this is not hypothetical: a 2025 JAMA Network Open study found commercial medical LLMs followed injected instructions in 94.4% of simulated patient encounters, including life threatening recommendations . Yet the clinically decisive problem we quantify here is different. Most real clinical threats protected health information PHI exfiltration, cross patient access, bulk export, out of scope advice are fluent, legitimate looking requests that carry no attack signal, so even a state of the art injection detector passes them. Existing runtime guardrails trade safety against latency: model based auditors are accurate but add hundreds of milliseconds of Python inference, while lexical filters are fast but blind to obfuscated or semantically disguised payloads. We present QFIRE, an inline, provider agnostic prompt firewall implemented as a single self contained Rust toolchain proxy, CLI, and benchmark harness. QFIRE combines three mechanisms: (i) positive security scope constraints, which restrict a model call to a declared natural language purpose and block out of scope drift even when no overt attack token is present; (ii) an asynchronous detector graph that runs N rules and their detector nodes concurrently, cheapest checks first; and (iii) a de obfuscation pass that decodes Base64 hex ROT13, folds homoglyphs and leetspeak, and strips zero width characters before detection. QFIRE ships 106 versioned firewall rules and a dedicated HIPAA Safe Harbor 18 identifier PHI panel, and runs a local DeBERTa v3 injection classifier via embedded ONNX Runtime. On 1968 public prompt injection and jailbreak prompts QFIREs deterministic hybrid attains F1 0.86, statistically tied with Metas state of the art PromptGuard 2 0.86 and above protectai DeBERTa v3 0.83; lexical baselines lag 0.16 to 0.50. Our central result is on QFIRE HealthBench, a new 2000 prompt healthcare benchmark we build and release with real garak and Microsoft PyRIT payloads. There the same PromptGuard-2 recovers only 0.40 recall DeBERTa v3 0.57, because most clinical threats carry no injection signal; QFIREs combined scope plus PHI chain reaches 0.83 recall F1 0.87 at a calibrated 0.08 false positive rate. Generic injection detection, even state of the art, is therefore necessary but not sufficient for healthcare agents. A bare LLM judge also closes most of this static corpus gap F1 0.90; QFIREs contribution beyond static accuracy is auditable determinism, bounded latency, and adaptive robustness, where the bare judge falls to 34 to 59% recall section 5.5. End to end, placing QFIRE in front of a tool using agent over a mock EHR sandbox cuts the agents harmful action rate from 0.38 to 0.00 at a 0.13 benign utility cost. All code, rules, corpora snapshots, and scripts are released, and every table regenerates from a single make paper target against local models with no paid API keys.

16
Adapting a Regulation of Craving Magnetic Resonance Imaging Task to Generate Functional Repetitive Transcranial Magnetic Stimulation Targets for the Ventromedial and Dorsolateral Prefrontal Cortex in Treatment-Seeking Participants with Cannabis Use Disorder

Geoly, A.; McCalley, D. M.; Struckmann, W.; Azeez, A.; Wong, B.; Kim, B.; Ninomiya, S.; Ahmed, S.; Kim, J. P.; McRae-Clark, A. L.; Froeliger, B.; Sahlem, G. L.

2026-06-06 addiction medicine 10.64898/2026.06.04.26353616 medRxiv
Top 2%
0.0%
Show abstract

Background: Repetitive Transcranial Magnetic Stimulation (rTMS) is a promising treatment across addictive disorders including Cannabis Use Disorder (CUD). Targeting incentive-salience circuitry via the ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC) and central-executive circuitry via the left dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (LDLPFC) are both promising treatment approaches; however, to date structural targets have predominated whereas functional targeting may allow for more precision. In this pilot trial we adapted a functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI) Regulation of Craving (ROC) task to generate fMRI-based rTMS targets in the vmPFC and LDLPFC. Methods: We recruited treatment-seeking participants with moderate or severe CUD as a part of an open-label trial and administered an adapted ROC-task during fMRI following 24-hours of cannabis abstinence. We identified sub-portions of maximal activation of the LDLPFC when participants thought of long-term consequences of cannabis use (Later) and of the vmPFC when participants thought of short-term positive aspects of cannabis use (Now). We hypothesized that our task would generate acceptable rTMS targets in >66% of baseline fMRI scans. Results: A total of 20-participants enrolled in the trial (50%F, age=33.3+9.8) and completed the baseline fMRI. The adapted ROC-task elicited group level activation in the LDLPFC and precuneus in the Later>Now and in the bilateral vmPFC, ACC, and striatum in the Now>Later contrast. Acceptable functional targets resolved in both the vmPFC and LDLPFC in 19 of 20 participants (one participant did not tolerate MRI). Conclusions: The adapted ROC-task elicits activation in incentive salience and central executive circuitry and can feasibly generate rTMS targets when using a cluster selection algorithm.

17
BodyMAE: A Surface-Area Aware Masked Autoencoder for Body Composition Estimation from 3D Body Scans

Zheng, Y.; Feng, B.; Cheng, R.; Qiu, C.; Long, Z.; Vaziri, K.; Hahn, J.

2026-06-06 health informatics 10.64898/2026.06.04.26354925 medRxiv
Top 2%
0.0%
Show abstract

Accurate assessment of body composition is important to risk stratification and management of metabolic, musculoskeletal, and aging-related diseases, yet reference modalities such as Dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) are costly and impractical for frequent monitoring. Commodity 3D body scans offer a low-cost, radiation-free alternative, but extracting meaningful and predictive shape features from scans remains challenging due to nonuniform point density, variable body size and cross-device differences. We introduce BodyMAE, a self-supervised, surface-area aware masked autoencoder for metric-scale 3D body scans. The pipeline integrates area-adjusted sampling, a long-range focused encoder, and a lightweight decoder regularized to promote locally uniform reconstructions. Trained and evaluated on 917 paired 3D body scans paired with clinical DXA reports, BodyMAE achieves strong accuracy on fat percentage (root-mean-square error (RMSE) 3.825 percentage points, R^2 0.908), fat mass (RMSE 3.694 kg, R^2 0.968), and lean mass (RMSE 3.608 kg, R^2 0.901), with competitive performance on bone mineral content (RMSE 0.284 kg, R^2 0.754).We also assess feature stability across pretrained baselines, finding higher retrieval accuracy for our representations (Top-1 90.131%). These results indicate that combining metric-aware sampling, long-range relational encoding, and local geometric regularization enables accurate body composition estimation from 3D body scans, as validated by comparisons to DXA-derived measurements.

18
AutoClip: AI-Guided TEE Semantic Segmentation for TEER A Proof-of-Concept Study

Chen, M.; Li, X.; Yang, K.; Taramasso, M.

2026-06-06 cardiovascular medicine 10.64898/2026.05.29.26354195 medRxiv
Top 2%
0.0%
Show abstract

**Abstract** **Background:** Transcatheter edge-to-edge repair (TEER) is an established treatment for mitral regurgitation but remains highly dependent on operator experience and complex transesophageal echocardiography (TEE)-guided intraprocedural imaging. Artificial intelligence (AI)-based semantic segmentation may improve procedural reproducibility and intraprocedural guidance; however, no TEER-specific segmentation framework has been reported. **Objectives:** To develop and evaluate AutoClip, a clinician-driven AI-guided TEE semantic segmentation model designed for simultaneous delineation of mitral valve anatomy and in-vivo TEER device components. **Methods:** A retrospective proof-of-concept study was conducted using 987 intraprocedural TEE frames derived from 10 video clips in 3 patients undergoing MitraClip G4 implantation. Seven semantic labels, including mitral leaflets and device components, were manually annotated using ITK-SNAP. Following standardized preprocessing and region-of-interest extraction, an Attention U-Net architecture was trained frame-wise on bicommissural and corresponding X-plane TEE views. Model performance was assessed using mean intersection-over-union (IoU) and Dice coefficient on an independent test set. **Results:** The Attention U-Net demonstrated improved sensitivity to small device structures compared with conventional U-Net architectures. Preliminary training performance achieved a mean IoU of approximately 0.93, while independent test performance reached a mean IoU of 0.46 across foreground classes. Qualitative assessment demonstrated feasible simultaneous segmentation of mitral leaflets, clip arms, grippers, and delivery shaft during TEER procedures. **Conclusions:** AutoClip represents a proof-of-concept TEER-specific TEE semantic segmentation framework initiated through a clinician-oriented workflow without formal computer science expertise. Although preliminary accuracy remains modest due to limited sample size, this study establishes a reproducible pathway for future AI-assisted intraprocedural guidance systems and larger multicenter development efforts in structural heart interventions.

19
From Charting Burden to Workflow Signal: Retrospective Validation of Documentation-Density Measures for ICU Complexity and Long-Stay Risk

Collier, A.

2026-06-06 health informatics 10.64898/2026.06.04.26354922 medRxiv
Top 2%
0.0%
Show abstract

Background Electronic health record documentation patterns may reflect workflow complexity, monitoring intensity, and operational strain in intensive care settings. However, documentation-derived features can be sensitive to local documentation culture, data capture systems, and outcome definitions. Retrospective validation across multiple datasets is therefore needed before these signals are used in workflow intelligence or clinical AI governance tools. Objective To evaluate whether documentation-density and documentation-timing features show reproducible retrospective signal for ICU workflow complexity and long-stay proxy outcomes across de-identified critical care datasets, while distinguishing workflow and long-stay associations from unsupported claims about mortality prediction, burden reduction, or deployment readiness. Methods We synthesized retrospective validation results from de-identified ICU and workflow datasets generated through a prespecified documentation-density validation program. Feature families included Documentation Burden Score style features, Shift-End Documentation Rate style features, documentation reliability style metadata, and all-documentation feature sets where available. Outcomes included long ICU length of stay proxies, mortality where available, and workflow proxy endpoints. Models compared baseline feature sets with enhanced models containing documentation-density or workflow features. Performance was summarized using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, Brier score where reported, delta AUROC, bootstrap confidence intervals where reported, and label-shuffle controls where available. Results The strongest external long-stay proxy evidence came from the NWICU chartevents analysis, which included 28,612 ICU stays, 20,267 stays with chart events, and 9,619,759 chart events. For ICU length of stay greater than the median, baseline AUROC was 0.5252. Enhanced AUROC was 0.9512 for Documentation Burden Score features, 0.9214 for Shift-End Documentation Rate features, 0.8470 for documentation reliability style features, and 0.9517 for all documentation features. Corresponding label-shuffle enhanced AUROCs were near random, ranging from 0.4897 to 0.5064. For ICU length of stay greater than the 75th percentile, baseline AUROC was 0.5155. Enhanced AUROC was 0.9433 for Documentation Burden Score features, 0.9194 for Shift-End Documentation Rate features, 0.8118 for documentation reliability style features, and 0.9427 for all documentation features, with label-shuffle enhanced AUROCs from 0.4836 to 0.4999. Additional retrospective support was observed in eICU workflow analyses, HiRID first-24-hour documentation-density analyses, MIMIC-IV HF ICU internal analyses, MIMIC-IV-Note metadata extensions, and nursing-chart or lab density proxy analyses. However, cross-institution discrimination transfer was weak without recalibration, and several analyses remained proxy validations rather than final clinical validations. Conclusions Documentation-density and documentation-timing features show promising retrospective signal for ICU workflow complexity and long-stay proxy outcomes, especially in NWICU chartevents and selected internal dataset-specific analyses. These findings support further preregistered, prospective, silent-mode validation of documentation-derived workflow intelligence. They do not establish prospective clinical performance, mortality reduction, clinician burden reduction, autonomous deterioration prediction, or deployment readiness.

20
An AI-assisted feasibility evaluation of three photoplethysmography-derived microvascular reactivity signals in MIMIC-IV-WDB v0.1.0

Landry, T. C.; Kim, Y.

2026-06-06 health informatics 10.64898/2026.06.03.26354863 medRxiv
Top 2%
0.0%
Show abstract

Background. Capillary refill time, an examiner-dependent bedside test of distal microvascular perfusion, has become a resuscitation target in septic shock,1,2,3,4 motivating a continuous surrogate computed from the photoplethysmogram (PPG, the optical waveform the pulse oximeter on every ICU patient already records).5,6,7,8 Objective. We attempted three PPG-derived candidate measures on the MIMIC-IV Waveform Database (MIMIC-IV-WDB v0.1.0) and asked, by inspecting randomly drawn examples, whether each captured its intended physiology before any downstream modeling. Methods. MIMIC-IV-WDB v0.1.09 was linked to MIMIC-IV.10 The signals were a cuff-anchored perfusion-index recovery (reactive hyperemia when the cuff shares an arm with the probe), a slow Mayer-wave-band power ratio of the perfusion index (sympathetic vasomotor tone), and a per-beat diastolic exponential decay time constant (a refill-like recovery time). For each signal we drew 10 random examples at a fixed seed and checked them against a checklist fixed in advance. Each was read by the author and, separately, by MedGemma 1.5, a multimodal medical language model run locally. A synthetic test with a known time constant checked the third signal. Results. The cuff-anchored signal showed the expected occlusion-reperfusion shape on 268 of 6,236 evaluable cuff cycles (4.30%) in 15 of 19 patients, consistent with opposite-limb placement of the probe and cuff. The slow-band ratio returned a stable cohort value, but a clear, stationary peak appeared in only4 of 10 random windows. The per-beat fit met its goodness-of-fit threshold in 10 of 10 beats, yet a cardiac-frequency heuristic flagged a possible fit on the heart-rate oscillation in 7 of 10, and in 5 of 17 patients the time constant lay where an exponential is indistinguishable from a straight line. A 0.5Hz high-pass pre-filter implanted its own approximately 318 ms time constant regardless of truth. The language model tracked the human on clear positives but reported the pattern present on every call it returned, never absent. Conclusions. Two of the three candidate signals did not reflect their intended physiology in most examples, and the third was constrained by sensor placement. Inspecting a few random raw inputs against a checklist written in advance is an inexpensive upstream check before downstream inference on PPG-derived microvascular signals.